28.09.2020 08:44

Review of the Russian market for September 28: the second wave floods the ruble

Market the day before. The dynamics were mixed. HSCI securities (ISKJ 34.50, + 7.18%) were the growth leaders again. The leaders of the fall were the shares of AFK Sistema (AFKS 21.181, -2.74%). The USD/RUB pair closed above 78 for the first time since April 2. Market and company news. The focus is on the wave of the ruble weakening. We still believe that there are no systemic risks for the Russian currency at the moment. However, the increase in the COVID-19 sickness rate is now speculatively recouping. Despite the possibility of strict quarantine measures is not currently being discussed, in fact, self-isolation will increase, and this will cut down on businesses associated with the consumer sector. Also, the sickness rate is growing in other countries, and there are concerns for the recovery of the global economy and the commodities prices, therefore the speculators are ahead of the curve. We expect a quick decline to the 75-77 range. HeadHunter (HHRU 1872.76, + N/A) shares got demand. On the first day of trading, the turnover exceeded 250 million rubles, over 6 thousand transactions were concluded. We do not exclude that interest will decrease in the coming days, but the security will enter the top 50. Before the publication of the Q3 report, most likely, the sideward dynamics will continue in the wide range of $ 20-24, adjusted for the ruble exchange rate. Trading ideas. Speculative sale of Magnit (MGNT 5025, -0.63%). Operating indicators are improving, but the investors may try to win back expectations of falling sales and lower margins amid the pandemic wave. From a technical point, a decrease to the range of 4600-4700 rubles is likely. Expectations. We expect mixed dynamics. The second wave of COVID-19 is having a moderate impact on the market. The USD/RUB pair expectations: 77.00-78.50, and the Moscow Exchange index expectations: 2850-2900 p.