Consumer Confidence in Central Asia - May 2024: Change of Catch-Up, New Records and Anti-Records
Author: Daniyar Orazbayev, Analyst at Freedom Finance Global
For the eleventh month, Freedom Finance Global has been researching consumer confidence, inflation and devaluation expectations of residents in four Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. May 2024 once again showed different results, but in general, a significant improvement in inflationary and devaluation sentiment is noticeable.
In May, the first changes are observed in the rating of countries on the consumer confidence index (CCI). Kyrgyzstan now occupies the second place, which is significantly ahead of Uzbekistan. At the same time, it is the first country that showed a significant improvement in the CCI index and reached a new record. Whereas in Uzbekistan, the opposite is true. At the same time, Kazakhstan shows a slight recovery for the second consecutive month and formally returned to the positive zone. Tajikistan continues to be the leading country, where the CCI index remains at the same levels. There is a significant improvement in inflationary sentiment in the region, except for Uzbekistan, where a sharp acceleration in annual inflation is recorded. We can also note a general improvement in devaluation expectations amid the strengthening of national currencies in three countries at once.
In Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, analysts collect 3,600 questionnaires each month, in Kyrgyzstan – 1,600, in Tajikistan – 1,200, pro rata the size of the population in the countries under research. The research is based on the methodology used to obtain Consumer Confidence Indices in many countries of the World and adapted to local tasks by the research company, United Research Technologies Group. The data collection method is a telephone survey. The survey questionnaire has been adapted: the survey is conducted in the respondents' native language.
Kazakhstan
In May, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) showed improvement in Kazakhstan for the second consecutive month and reached 100.4 points. Although the monthly increase was one point, which is relatively insignificant, it indicates a slight predominance of positive responses from respondents over negative ones. Substantially, the improvement in the result was due to a sharp increase in positive responses to the question of improving the economic situation over the past 12 months. The CCI is 4.7 points higher compared to last May.
Some positive recovery in the economic situation
The sub-index of past changes in the economic situation over the past year increased by 4.3 points and reached 74.2 points in May. 16.4% of surveyed Kazakhstanis believe that the economic situation in the country has improved, although there were only 13.8% in April. However, a significant majority (46.8%) continues to give the opposite answer. In terms of age, all groups showed a noticeable improvement, except for the oldest respondents - 60 years and older. Thus, the share of positive answers increased from 17.4 to 20.9% among young people under 29, and from 9.9 to 13.9% among those 45-59 years old. At the same time, the older generation was in second place in terms of the absolute share of positive answers with 15.3% result.
A significant increase in positivity is observed in five regions at once, where Akmola Region being the clear leader. At the same time, a comparable decrease in the share of positive responses occurred only in Aktobe Region. In Akmola Region, the share of positively minded respondents increased from 7.7% in April to 18.8% in May. A noticeable increase in this indicator can also be observed in Turkestan, Kyzylorda (+9 p.p.), Mangystau and Abay Regions (+8 p.p.). This time, the best region was Turkestan Region, where the share of those who noticed an improvement in the economic situation amounted to an impressive 27.5%. East Kazakhstan Region was the outsider again, where this indicator reached only 7.4%, which is nevertheless 1 p.p. higher than the April result.
More and more people are ready to make large purchases
The second indicator of improvement compared to April was the sub-index of the current favorable conditions for large purchases. This indicator increased by 1.7 points, reaching 72.3 points, which is the best result in the last six months. 30.5% of Kazakhstanis believe that now are rather favorable conditions for large expenses and purchases. In April, the share of such people was 1.1 percentage points lower. Among age groups, the greatest increase in the level of optimism is again observed among young people under 29. Among them, 45.8% gave a positive answer, and their share was 41.1% in April. In other age groups, the changes are insignificant, except for respondents aged 30–44, who recorded a slight decrease in positive answers. 29.4% believe that now are favorable conditions for large purchases, there were 30.6% in April. Among the older generation over 60 years old, only 21.1% of respondents gave a positive answer to this question, which is the lowest result among the four age groups.
But in the regional context, a significant improvement and deterioration in the results can be seen in two pairs of regions. Thus, the share of positive responses increased by 12 p.p. in the Atyrau and Kyzylorda Regions. In Atyrau, the indicator reached 39.5%, which is the best result in the entire republic, and the indicator was 37.5% in the Kyzylorda region. At the same time, a sharp deterioration in the same indicator was observed in the Ulytau (-16 p.p.) and Kostanay Regions (-12 p.p.) in May. As a result, the Ulytau Region became the outsider in May with 18.6% result.
Inflation expectations and perceptions at record lows
Inflation expectations and perceptions of Kazakhstan residents as a whole continue to decline for another month in a row, for the most part, having updated record low indicators. Over the past month, only 39.7% of residents (43.4% in April) noticed a strong increase in prices. A similar trend is also observed in a strong increase in prices over the past year. The share of those who noticed a faster than before increase in prices decreased from 56.3 to 55.1%, which is also a new record.
Inflation expectations showed a less clear result. The share of people expecting a strong increase in prices over the next month increased slightly from a record low of 15.8 to 16%. On the other hand, fewer respondents expect price growth to accelerate over the next 12 months: from 20.5 to 19.2%, which is also a record low for the entire research. At the same time, the share of those expecting the rate of price growth to remain at the same level increased by 3.8 p.p.
A similar inflationary perceptions and expectations research by the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan showed similar dynamics. According to this research, the share of those expecting a strong price increase during the year fell from 25.1 to 24.9%. In addition, the same indicator fell much more significantly - from 20.7 to 17.7% in one-month horizon. Nevertheless, inflationary perceptions in the horizon of both one month and 12 months fell to multi-month lows.
Among particular goods and services, the majority of respondents are still concerned of the significant increase in food prices. The list of the most noticeably increased prices for goods remains unchanged: “meat and poultry”, “milk and dairy products”, “bread and bakery products”, and “vegetables and fruits”. These food products continue to be in the top-4 among surveyed Kazakhstanis for the past seven months in a row. The share of people, who found it difficult to single out at least one product that has increased in price significantly, has grown to 8.2% and continues to increase for the fifth month in a row; which also indicates an improvement in the inflationary sentiment of the population. In addition, the share of people who noticed an increase in prices for “housing services and utilities” increased in May after a sharp decrease in April. This dynamic may be a normalization after a sharp decline, and nevertheless, the growth of tariffs for housing services and utilities on average continued in May, according to official statistics. Thus, growth amounted to 0.9% in comparison with April, while in the previous month growth reached 0.7%.
Devaluation expectations rose slightly
Devaluation expectations of Kazakhstanis slightly increased in May compared to April, but continue to remain at some of the lowest levels in many months. It should be noted that in May, the tenge weakened against the dollar for the first time since February: the exchange rate rose by almost 5 tenge. According to the survey results, the share of Kazakhstanis expecting the tenge to weaken over a one-year horizon increased from 48.2 to 48.9%, and over a one-month horizon – from 27.2 to 29%.
Uzbekistan
In May 2024, the Consumer Confidence Index of Uzbekistan residents showed a decline for the second month in a row. Moreover, the rate of decline was again quite significant amounting to 3.4 points. As a result, the CCI reached 126.8 points in Uzbekistan, which is the lowest indicator for the entire research. Yet again, a decline is recorded in all five sub-indexes. Moreover, for the second month in a row, the most significant decline was shown by residents' assessments of changes in the economic situation over the past 12 months.
The assessment of the economic situation has deteriorated sharply
The sub-index of changes in the economic situation decreased by 7.8 points almost repeating the anti-record for the entire research, and reached 117.5 points. 48.1% of Uzbekistan residents believe that the economic situation has improved over the past 12 months, although there were 58% in March, and 53.5% in April. All four age groups again show a deterioration in results. The oldest group from 60 years old looks better than the rest, where the decrease in the share of positive answers was not as significant as in the other three groups: from 55.6 to 53.2%. While in other age categories, the monthly decrease was 4.9-6.4 p.p. The most significant change occurred among young people under 29. The share of positive answers fell from 53.1 to 46.7%, which was the worst result.
A significant decrease in the indicator occurred in all regions except Syrdarya, Andijan and Fergana. In Syrdarya Region, the share of respondents who chose positive answers increased from 52.3 to 54.5%, while there was a slight decrease in this indicator in the other two regions. But the most noticeable decrease in the share of people noting an improvement in the economy occurred in Namangan Region. There, the share of positively minded people fell from 58.3 to 46.1%. However, this result is not the worst, which was once again recorded in Tashkent (33.2%). Moreover, a number of regions show a monthly decrease in the share of positive answers by 7-8.9 p.p.: Surkhandarya, Samarkand, Jizzakh, Bukhara and Kashkadarya Regions.
Slight deterioration of personal financial situation
In May, the second indicator of the largest decline was the question about assessing the change in personal financial situation over the past 12 months. The decline was a modest 2.9 points, and the absolute value of the sub-index was the second lowest for the entire research at 128.4 points. 56.9% of Uzbekistan respondents believe that their personal financial situation has improved. In April, the share of such respondents was slightly higher - 57.6%. However, the share of negative answers increased from 18.1 to 19.9%. The worst of all age groups were respondents aged 30-44, among whom the share of positive answers fell from 58.3 to 55.3%. On the contrary, the older generation from 60 years old showed an improvement in the same indicator from 45.5 to 49.1%, which is still the worst result. While, the greatest positive attitude continues to be recorded among young people under 29 years old with a share of positive responses of 67.3%, which is 1 p.p. less than in April.
Among the regions, Jizzakh and Syrdarya regions stand out in a favorable light, where improved results are recorded. In Jizzakh Region, the share of those who noted an improvement in their personal financial situation increased from 58.3 to 66.5%, which is the best value among all regions. In Syrdarya Region, the same indicator increased from 55.4 to 61.4%. On the other hand, a noticeable deterioration in results is observed in Namangan region, where the share of positive responses fell from 61.1 to 54.9%. However, Tashkent continues to be the outsider, where the result is the lowest despite a slight increase in positivity. In May, the share of those who noted an improvement in their personal financial situation was 47.3% against 44.9% in April.
Inflation expectations have fallen sharply, despite a sharp rise in inflation
Inflation expectations of Uzbekistan residents significantly decreased in May, but inflation perceptions, on the contrary, increased. Thus, 48.5% of residents felt a very strong increase in prices over the past year against 47.8% in April. While in the horizon of the past month, the share of those who felt a strong increase in prices increased from 25.5 to 27.7%. Thus, these indicators updated multi-month highs: the first indicator became the highest since October, and the second since December last year. Inflation expectations significantly decreased in both time frames. The share of those who expect a strong increase in prices in the next month decreased from 16.5 to 13.2%. In the horizon of one year, 28.1% of respondents expect a faster increase in prices, although there were 32.6% in April. Thus, the April increase in inflation expectations was largely offset back.
In general, the growth of inflationary perceptions is accompanied by a parallel growth in prices, according to official statistics. It should be noted that monthly inflation reached a record high of 2.8% in May since December 2017. Thus, annual inflation accelerated from 8.08 to 10.55% in May. The main factor in the growth of prices was utilities, for which the zero VAT rate was abolished. As a result, paid services in general increased in price by 15.2%. As a result, “housing services and utilities” show strong growth among goods and services that increased in price most significantly. In March, 21.4% of residents noticed an increase in prices for housing services and utilities, their share increased to 31.8% in April, and already to 44.1% in May, which is slightly less than the leader - "meat and poultry" (45.6%). "Medicines and drugs" continue to be in third place with 29.5% result. For them, the price increase for the year was 15.5% since the beginning of the year also due to the abolition of the zero VAT rate. On the other hand, the share of those who noticed the increase in prices for gasoline and fuel decreased from 26.1 to 19.4%.
Sharp decline in devaluation expectations
In May, devaluation expectations of Uzbekistan residents showed a sharp decline and reached multi-month lows. The share of those who expect the sum to weaken against the dollar over the next 12 months fell from 71.4% in April to 63.4%, which is the minimum since November 2023. But on a one-month horizon, the share of pessimists fell even more significantly: from 53.5 to 43.5%, which became a record low for the entire research. In fact, there was no noticeable strengthening of the local currency on the foreign exchange market in May, as happened in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The sum strengthened against the dollar by only 0.1%. Nevertheless, given that the sum weakened without pauses before, from June 2023 to March 2024, a slight strengthening for two months in a row probably became a big positive for the population.
Kyrgyzstan
In Kyrgyzstan, the Consumer Confidence Index has been growing for the third month in a row. In May, the growth was 2.5 points, and the CCI reached 132.1 points, which is only slightly less than one point of the record value for the entire research. Four of the five sub-indexes that determine the CCI composite level increased compared to April. The greatest growth is recorded in the sub-index of the current favorable conditions for large purchases, which almost reached the neutral limit of 100 points. Residents of Kyrgyzstan also showed a noticeable increase in positivity in the issue of changes in the economic situation over the past 12 months.
Favorable conditions for large purchases reached a record
The sub-index of the current favorable conditions for large purchases also continues to grow for the third month in a row. This time, the growth was an impressive 9.5 points, which led to reaching a level of 99.9 points, which is a new record. Residents of Kyrgyzstan were approximately equally divided in terms of the share of positive and negative answers. 38.2% of residents indicate favorable conditions for large purchases, while 37.8% have the opposite opinion. In April, the share of these groups was 35.2% and 43.6%, respectively. In terms of age, young people under 29 show the greatest growth and absolute value. The share of positive answers among them reached 37.9% in April, and jumped sharply to 46.8% in May. The older generation from 60 years old showed worst results, where, however, an increase in optimism is still recorded. 32.5% of people over 60 gave a positive answer to the question about the favorable conditions for large purchases, although there were 29.5% in April. The only age group that showed a deterioration were people aged 30–44, for whom the same indicator fell from 36.7 to 34.6%.
In the regional context, a sharp increase in the share of positive responses (from 32.3 to 48.9%) compared to April is recorded in Talas Region, which is the leader of May. Some growth is also observed in the cities of Bishkek (+6.6 p.p.) and Osh (+5 p.p.), as well as in Osh Region (+4.8 p.p.). On the other hand, fewer people in Naryn Region believe that now is a favorable time for large purchases. The share of positive responses decreased from 34.1 to 27.4% and ended up at the bottom of the regional rating.
Economic estimates fully recovered breaking a new record
In Kyrgyzstan, the sub-index of changes in the economic situation increased by 3.6 points and reached 139 points, which became a new record for all 11 months of the research. The share of people who positively assess changes in the economy over the past 12 months increased from 58.6 to 60.6%. All four age groups show a noticeable increase in optimism, except for people aged 30–44, who showed a slight increase in positivity in this issue. As a result, this group had the lowest rate of positive responses that was 56.6%. The strongest growth is observed in the 45–59 age group, among whom the share of positive responses increased from 58.6 to 62.9%. Nevertheless, respondents aged 60 and older continue to be the leaders, among whom this figure reaches 69%.
In the regional context, strong growth is observed in the city of Osh and the Osh Region. While the share of those, who note that the economic situation has improved, has increased in the region from 62.9 to 70% over the past year, the figures were slightly more modest in the city (57.3%). In May, the Jalal-Abad Region, where the share of positive responses reached 75.2%, took a leadership among the regions. A sharp decrease in the same indicator is recorded from 61 to 54.7% in the Issyk-Kul Region. Nevertheless, this is far from the worst indicator, which is again recorded in Bishkek, where it is only 41.8%, which is less than in April (44.1%).
Inflation sentiment hits new lows
Inflation estimates and expectations of Kyrgyzstanis continued to decline in May, and reached new record lows in some specific issues. If 27.6% of respondents felt a very strong increase in prices over the past month in April, then such figures were 24.2% in May. This figure was the lowest for the entire research. Estimates of price growth over the past 12 months decreased at an even more significant rate. In May, 46.4% of Kyrgyzstanis noted an acceleration in price growth, while this figure was 51.7% in April. Preliminary official data on annual inflation indicate a sharp decline in May from 5.2 to 4.4%, which is quite consistent with the opinion of respondents who participated in the survey.
Inflation expectations of Kyrgyzstanis also decreased, but only slightly, since for the most part they were already at a low level. The share of respondents expecting faster price growth in the next 12 months fell from 12.7 to 12.3%. Moreover, the share of those who believe that prices will rise very strongly next month decreased from 6.7 to 6.2%.
Among the particular goods and services for which residents have noticed the greatest price increase, flour can again be noted, which continues to be the leader of the rating for at least the last nine months. At the same time, the share of respondents who chose flour decreased reaching the lowest values for the above-mentioned period. 48.2% of residents noted this product, while there were 52.7% last time. The list of the top-5 goods for which the greatest price increase is noticeable has not changed for the ninth month in a row. In May, 42.1% of respondents noted “vegetable oil”, 34.4% - “vegetables and fruits”, 34.1% - both “sugar and salt” and “meat and poultry”, in addition to flour.
Devaluation expectations still near lows
The Kyrgyz som continued to strengthen in May for the second month in a row. The dollar-som pair fell in value by 1.1% and reached the level of July last year. However, this did not particularly affect the mood of the Kyrgyz people, whose devaluation expectations remained at the same levels, which are close to record lows, in May. In April 27.4% of residents expected the som to weaken in a year, the share of such people was 27.7% in May. In the issue of dollar growth in the one-month horizon, the increase in the share of pessimists also turned out to be insignificant: from 15.8 to 15.9%, which is only 0.6 percentage points higher than the record low.
Tajikistan
In May, the Consumer Confidence Index slightly decreased in Tajikistan from 146.7 to 146.1 points. In general, it has been at approximately the same levels for the last three months. If you look at particular sub-indexes, you can see a multidirectional movement compared to April. The biggest decrease was in the assessments of the favorable conditions for large purchases, while the opposite positive dynamics is shown by people's optimism regarding changes in their personal financial situation over the next 12 months.
Conditions for large purchases hit record lows
The sub-index on the current favorable conditions for large purchases and expenses fell sharply by 6.5 points in May, and amounted to exactly 75 points, which is the worst result in all 11 months of the research. Only 37.3% of respondents gave positive answers, although there were slightly more of them (39.7%) in April. An interesting situation is observed in terms of age groups. While young people under 29 and people aged 30-44 remained with their opinion, a deterioration in optimism is recorded among the other two age groups. As a result, the leader is young people among age groups, where the share of optimists remained approximately at the same level of 42.6%. While the leaders of April, people over 60, showed a significant decrease in the same indicator: from 46 to 33%. Nevertheless, the smallest share of those who believe that now is a favourable time for large purchases is observed among people aged 45-59. Only 31.8% chose positive answers.
In the regional context, dramatic changes are observed in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, where the share of optimists has sharply decreased for the second month in a row from 54.4% in March to 35.7% in April and then to 21.2% in May, which was the worst indicator among all five regions. A slight deterioration in the results was shown only in the Sughd Region, where the share of respondents fell from 41.7 to 40.9%, which is the best result. In the other three regions, the decrease in the same indicator was more significant: 2.1–3.8 p.p.
Record positive expectations for personal financial situation
On the other hand, residents' forecasts regarding their personal financial situation in the next 12 months turned out to be much better than in April. It should be noted that this sub-index rose to 166.4 points, which is an absolute record for the entire research. The share of optimistic respondents increased from 76.3 to 80.4%. In terms of age, an increase in optimism is recorded in all age groups. In May, the leader was young people under 29, who also showed the greatest increase in the share of positive answers. In April, 81.4% of young people expected an improvement in their personal financial situation, and this figure increased to 87.4% in May. This indicator also increased significantly among people over 60 years old: from 69.9 to 75.1%. Nevertheless, 75.1% is the lowest among the four groups.
In all regions, except the capital, a noticeable increase in the share of residents who expect an improvement in their personal financial situation over the next 12 months is recorded. In Dushanbe, the share of positive responses increased only from 72.6 to 72.7%. But this figure increased from 74.3 to 88% in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region. The increase was 5.9 p.p. in the districts of republican subordination, and 4.1 p.p. in the Khatlon Region.
Lower inflation estimates and expectations
Inflation estimates and expectations of Tajikistan residents have mostly decreased in May. For three out of four questions, the decline continued, thereby updating absolute minimums. The share of respondents who noted a strong increase in prices over the past month decreased from 17.4 to 16.5%. Over the past 12 months horizon, the share of those who felt a faster increase in prices fell from 23.8 to 22%. However, the inflation expectations of Tajikistan residents showed multidirectional dynamics in different time frames. 7.5% of residents expect a very strong increase in prices in the coming month, while there were 6.5% in April. However, the share of people expecting a faster increase in prices over the next 12 months fell from 9.1 to 8.7%.
Official inflation data for May have not yet been published, but annual inflation fell from 3.6 to 3.4% in April, which was noticeable in the April wave of the survey, when respondents' inflation sentiments improved sharply. Among particular goods, Tajikistan residents continue to be most concerned about flour prices. Over the past month, the share of such people has hardly changed, amounting to 37.2% (37% in April). However, there has been a significant increase for meat and poultry in people who have noticed an increase in prices. There were 27.7% of such people in April, this share reached 33.5% in May. The situation is the opposite for fruits and vegetables: from 30.1% in April to 26.6% in May. In general, these indicators have been fluctuating for the past three months. According to official statistics, prices for meat and meat products increased by 1.4% m/m in April, which led to an acceleration of annual price growth to 7.1%. And for beef separately, the monthly price growth reached 1.7%, and the annual price growth was 10.9%.
Record low devaluation expectations
In Tajikistan, devaluation expectations continued to decline in May setting new record lows for the 11 months of the research. It should be noted that the dollar exchange rate against the somoni fell by 1.5% in May after 14 months of stability. Thus, all this had a positive impact on the mood of residents. The share of those who expect the national currency to weaken decreased from 14.2 to 13.7% during the month, which is the lowest value for the entire research. 21.1% of the country's population expects weakening in the next year (23.1% in April), which is also a new record.
Conclusions
Overall, May 2024 turned out to be neutral for the Central Asian countries for the second month in a row. While Kazakhstan and Tajikistan show small changes in the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in different directions rather remaining at the same levels, Uzbekistan has seen a noticeable decrease in the CCI reaching an anti-record. At the same time, the index, on the contrary, reached its record for all 11 months of research in Kyrgyzstan. Thus, for the first time, Uzbekistan lost the second line in the ranking of countries in the region giving way to Kyrgyzstan. Most likely, the main factor in this dynamic was the sharp acceleration of inflation in Uzbekistan due to administrative decisions.
The CCI index in Kazakhstan has been recovering for the second month in a row and formally returned to the positive zone above 100 points after a couple of months. The greatest improvement is recorded in the assessment and forecast of the economic situation in the country, as well as in the issue of favorable conditions for large purchases. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan is still far from any records. While in Kyrgyzstan, a new record for the CCI is being recorded, largely due to the record for favorable conditions for large purchases showing the greatest positivity in the region.
The situation is quite stable for Tajikistan, the leader in the CCI. The index continues remaining at the same level for the third month in a row. Although, for example, residents are separately concerned of the favorable conditions for large purchases. The headliner of the month is Uzbekistan, where the CCI reached a new anti-record, where more respondents felt the deterioration of the economic situation. The level of positivity on all other issues has also noticeably fallen. All this is happening for the second month in a row and is most likely due to abolition of the zero VAT rate on housing services, utilities and medicines, which have sharply increased in price.
Thus, Uzbekistan turned out to be the only country for the second month where residents' inflation estimates significantly worsened. Many more people noticed the increase in housing services and utilities prices. That said, inflation expectations improved somewhat in Uzbekistan, although they were not better than in March, before the abolition of the zero VAT rate. In Kazakhstan, three inflation parameters fell to record lows for the entire research. At the same time, the share of those who noticed a strong increase in prices over the past month fell sharply. In Tajikistan, three out of four parameters for inflation expectations and estimates showed a decrease to record lows. Nevertheless, an official increase in meat prices is recorded, which affected the mood of respondents. In Kyrgyzstan, residents' inflation estimates also fell to record lows. Moreover, the fall was very sharp. Fewer residents notice a strong increase in flour prices, which was the major concern.
Devaluation expectations have generally declined in Central Asian countries. While in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan the sharp decline in devaluation expectations was replaced by stagnation in April, the figures have significantly decreased in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. We would especially like to note Uzbekistan, where the share of people expecting the national currency to weaken has fallen by as much as 8 and 10 p.p. in different periods. At the same time, one of the figures was a record low, and the second was very close thereto. In Tajikistan, devaluation expectations have not decreased significantly, but they still ended up at new lows. Thereat, we would like to note the general strengthening of national currencies against the dollar in three countries at once (except Kazakhstan). In Tajikistan, we have not seen such dynamics for 14 months, and in Uzbekistan, the gradual weakening of the sum for many months was replaced by two short months of strengthening in a row.
The eleventh wave of consumer confidence research in four Central Asian countries once again shows mixed dynamics. Kazakhstan managed to consolidate the recovery that began in April, while Tajikistan continues to hold on to previous levels despite a slight decline. The issue of the CCI dynamics in Uzbekistan, which had previously shown significant swings, closed with a new anti-record and the loss of the second line in the regional ranking amid a sharp acceleration in inflation. This turned out to be a feature of Uzbekistan, and we are unlikely to see any significant recovery in sentiment in the coming months.
