Consumer confidence in Central Asia in April 2024 shows mixed dynamics

Author: Daniyar Orazbayev, Analyst at Freedom Finance Global

For the tenth month, Freedom Finance Global has been researching consumer confidence, inflation and devaluation expectations of residents of four Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. April 2024 showed different results again and demonstrated local reasons and factors of each country for such dynamics.

It should be noted that in April, consumer confidence recovered in Kazakhstan, where the index had previously fallen during four consecutive months. At the same time, the CCI index remained just below 100 points, which indicates a slight predominance of negative responses over positive ones. On the other hand, a sharp decline occurred in Uzbekistan, where the index shows a strong swing for the fourth month. Thereat, it has changed slightly in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, however, Uzbekistan is likely to lose second place to Kyrgyzstan. Inflation expectations in all the above-mentioned countries, except Uzbekistan, generally showed a significant improvement. As a result, the level of concern about inflation in three countries was clearly lower than in the second half of 2023 and in the first months of the research. However, in Uzbekistan, zero VAT rates on medicines and utilities were abolished, which was a factor in increasing inflationary pessimism among residents of this country.

In Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, analysts collect 3,600 questionnaires each month, in Kyrgyzstan – 1,600, in Tajikistan – 1,200, in proportion to the size of the population in the countries researched. The research is based on the methodology used to obtain consumer confidence indexes in many countries of the world and adapted to local tasks by the research company - United Research Technologies Group. The data collection method is a telephone survey. The survey questionnaire has been adapted: the survey is conducted in the respondents' native language.

Kazakhstan

The consumer confidence index (CCI) in Kazakhstan significantly recovered in April after a rather sharp drop in March and four consecutive months of decline. Nevertheless, the recovery was not complete, and the CCI index technically continues to be below the level of 100 points. In other words, the share of negative responses on average prevails over positive ones. At the same time, the CCI index in April reached 99.4 points, which is slightly below the neutral border. For the most part, the recovery was driven by improved results on the current favorable conditions for large purchases and changes in personal financial situation. In annual terms, the CCI index was 2.9 points higher than in April last year. The main factor here is much more optimistic expectations of Kazakhstanis regarding the prospects of the economic situation.

More people are willing to make big purchases

The sub-index of favorable current conditions for large purchases increased by 6.5 points and reached the level of 70.6 points. Nevertheless, this is 3.3 points less than last year in April. 29.4% of Kazakhstanis believe that now rather favorable conditions for large spending and purchases. In March, the share of such people was 3 percentage points lower. At the same time, 60.9% of respondents express the opposite position, and the share of such people decreased by 4 percentage points compared to March. The greatest increase in the level of optimism is observed among young people under 29 years of age. Among them, 41.1% gave a positive response, while in March their share was 34.4%. In general, the improvement is recorded in all age categories. However, the placement remained the same – the older respondent, the worse the answers. Among the older generation from 60 years, only 18.9% of respondents gave a positive answer to this question.

Thereat, there is no clear unity among the regions: in five regions, the result has worsened relative to March. Among them, Mangystau region stands out, where the share of positive responses fell from 41.9% to 27.5%.

In other regions, a significant improvement is recorded. Aktobe region showed the highest progress in April with a score of 32.6% (in March only 14.8%). There was also a significant increase in positive responses in Turkestan (+10 p. p.), Kostanay (+10 p. p.), Atyrau (+8 p. p.) and Shymkent (+7 p. p.). As a result, the leader of April was Shymkent, where the share of positive responses reaches 39%, and the worst indicator is observed in Abay region – 20%.

Personal financial situation has improved for the majority of Kazakhstanis

The sub-index of past changes in personal financial situation over the past year increased by 6.1 points in April and reached 101.9 points, returning to the positive zone. This result was also 2.9 points higher than last year. 31.8% of Kazakhstani respondents believe that their personal financial situation has improved. This is 4.2 percentage points more than those who gave a negative answer. In March, the share of positive responses was 29.4%. Once again, there is an increase in positive emotions across all age groups. The best answer was given by young people under 29 years of age, among whom slightly more than half chose positive answers. In March there were only 45% of such representatives. In contrast to the previous question, the 45-59-year-old age group answered the worst for another month in a row. Among them, only 22.1% note an improvement in their personal financial situation, while in March they were slightly less – 21.3%.

In the context of regions, there is no significant deterioration in the results (as was the case with the previous question). Ulytau region showed the greatest progress, where the share of positive responses increased from 24.4% to 43.5%. This region became the leader in April, and Mangystau region came close, where the share of positive responses increased sharply to 39.9% (from 30.3% – in March). A noticeable improvement is also observed in Atyrau, Abai and Aktobe regions. The outsider of April was Kostanay region, where only 19.4% feel an improvement in their personal financial situation over the past year.

Inflation expectations and perceptions have declined again

Inflation expectations and feelings of Kazakhstan's residents as a whole declined again and for the most part updated record lows. Over the past month, 43.4% of residents (in February – 44.2%) noticed a strong increase in prices. This result was the lowest for the entire time of the study. A similar trend is also observed in the issue of strong price growth in the horizon of the past year. The share of those who noticed a faster price increase than before decreased from 58.8% to 56.3%, which is also a new record.

Inflation expectations also showed a decline. The share of people who expect a strong price increase in the horizon of one month fell from 17.5% to 15.8%. This result was only 0.1 percentage points lower than the record low in January. Expectations for an acceleration in price growth over the next 12 months have fallen from 21.2% to 20.5%, which is not a record low, as the above three indicators. Nevertheless, the record set in January is only 0.9 percentage points lower than the April value. In general, we note that inflation expectations and perceptions continue to be consistently at a lower level than last year. Many fewer people notice and expect a strong price increase in the April horizon. At the same time, over the past year, the decline in the same indicator turned out to be several times less. That is, most people still remember the recent strong price growth, and also admit the possibility of a repeat of this scenario.

A similar research by the National Bank of Kazakhstan on inflationary feelings and expectations showed a slightly different dynamics. According to the research, the share of people expecting strong price growth during the year increased from 24.7% to 25.1%. Also, in the one-month horizon, the same indicator increased from 19.5% to 20.7%. However, inflationary expectations fell slightly in the one-month horizon, while they rose slightly in the one-year horizon.

Among certain goods and services, the majority of Kazakhstani respondents are again concerned about the noticeable increase in food prices. Specifically, in the categories of “Meat and Poultry”, “Milk and Dairy Products”, “Bread and Bakery Products” and “Vegetables and Fruits”. These food products continue to occupy the top four places among respondents over the past six months. Nevertheless, the number of people who indicated these products in the survey was at the lowest level for the entire time of the research. If last month 13 products and services were marked by at least 10% of respondents, now there are 10 such names. We note a sharp decline in the share of people who noticed an increase in prices for housing services and utilities from 22% in March to 15% in April. Whether this is a one-time decline or the beginning of a new trend is still unknown, but official statistics indicate a slight increase in prices for housing services and utilities in April compared to February or March. In April, the average tariff for housing services and utilities increased by only 0.7%, while it was 1.7% in March.

Devaluation expectations were among the lowest in 10-11 months

In April, the devaluation expectations of Kazakhstanis significantly decreased in comparison with March and February. Most likely, this factor was the further strengthening of the tenge, which amounted to 1.3% in April. According to the survey, the share of Kazakhstanis expecting a weakening of the tenge in a one-year horizon decreased from 52.7 to 48.2%, and in a one-month horizon fell from 29.3 to 27.2%. The latest figure is the lowest in the last 11 months of the research, with the exception of January, when it was slightly less than 27.1%. In the issue with a one-year horizon, the indicator turned out to be the second lowest in the last 10 months, which also indicates a slightly greater confidence in the national currency among the population.

Uzbekistan

The Consumer Confidence Index of Uzbek citizens showed another wave of decline in April 2024 after recovering in March. The index returned to the February level amounting to 130.2 points, and having decreased by 5.6 points at the end of April. The decline turned out to be uniform and is recorded in almost all five sub-indexes (by 5.1-5.5 points). The most significant drop was shown by residents' assessments of changes in the economic situation over the past 12 months.

The assessment of the economic situation has worsened

The sub-index of changes in the economic situation fell by 6.8 points, showing the lowest result in the last nine months at 125.3 points. 53.5% of Uzbek residents believe that the economic situation has improved over the past 12 months, compared to 58% in March. All four age groups show worse results. The most significant change occurred among those aged 45-59. The share of positive responses decreased from 59 to 52.2% in this age group. The leaders continue to be respondents older than 60 years, even despite a significant drop in the share of positive responses. In April, 55.6% of people in the oldest group noticed an improvement in the economy, compared to 62.3% in March.

Regionally, the indicator declined in all regions except Navoi and Syrdarya. In Navoi, the share of respondents who chose positive answers increased from 54.6% to 57.2%. However, the opposite trend is observed in other regions of the country. It is most pronounced in the Republic of Karakalpakstan, where the same indicators fell from 62.8 to 53.6%. A noticeable decline is also observed in the following regions: Khorezm region (-8.7 p.p.), Kashkadarya region (-7 p.p.), Namangan region (-3.5 p.p.). Nevertheless, Khorezm region continues to maintain its leadership with 60% share of respondents who noticed an improvement in the economic situation. Residents of Tashkent, where the same indicator was 37.2%, again gave the worst response.

Economic outlook still mostly positive

The sub-index for forecasts of the economic situation over the next 12 months also declined significantly in April. Nevertheless, the indicator was 153.6 points, which indicates a large prevalence of positive opinions over negative ones. 64.4% of Uzbek respondents believe that the economic situation will improve. In March, the share of such respondents was higher and amounted to 68.3%. This time, the monthly decline in positivity among the four age groups was more uniform and without a clear leader. However, the most significant decline is again recorded among people aged 45-59 years - from 72.4 to 67.3%. Nevertheless, this age group continued to be the leader. The next group with a slight lag is the older group over 60 years of age, among which this indicator was 67.6%, but with a greater share of negative responses of 7.2% against 5.4% in people 45-59 years old.

Regionally, this time there is not a single region where there is an improvement in results. However, we once again note positively the Navoi and Syrdarya regions, where the regional sub-index remained at the same level as in March. On the other hand, the outlook for the economy worsened significantly in the Khorezm region, where the share of positive responses fell from 73.1% to 63.5%. A noticeable decline is also observed in Jizzakh, Surkhandarya and Tashkent regions. In the first two regions, the share of respondents who chose positive answers decreased by 7 p.p., and in the Tashkent region by 6 p.p. One of the March leaders, Namangan region, managed to maintain its leadership this time with the share of optimists of 74.8%. The worst result is again recorded in the capital, where the same indicator reached 55.4%.

Inflationary feelings and expectations jumped up

Inflation feelings and expectations of Uzbek residents rose significantly in April. Thus, 47.8% of residents, against 42.8% in March, felt a very strong increase in prices over the past year. While over the past month, the share of those who felt a strong increase in prices increased from 20.3% to 25.5%. The first indicator was the highest in the last six months, and the second in the last four months. As for inflation expectations, they show a similar picture. The share of people expecting a strong price increase in the next month increased sharply from 12.2% to 16.5%. Over the next year, 32.6% of respondents expect faster price growth, compared to only 26.4% in March. This indicator turned out to be the second highest for the entire time of the research, a higher value was recorded only in July 2023.

It should be noted that such a sharp change in sentiment occurred for a reason. In April, monthly inflation reached 0.93% against 0.67% in March, and in annual terms, inflation accelerated from 7.98% to 8.08%. A factor in this was the abolition of the zero VAT rate on medicines and utilities. As a result, it was these names that broke into the leaders of the list of goods and services for which a strong price increase was noticeable according to the survey. If 21.4% of residents noticed an increase in prices for housing services and utilities in March, this share increased to 31.8% in April, which is the second highest value among all goods and services after Meat and Poultry (43.8%). Medicines and medical supplies ranked third with a score of 29.1% compared to 24.8% in March. The share of those who noticed a sharp increase in sugar and salt prices also increased significantly: from 17.9% to 23.2%.

Official data fully agree with this interpretation of respondents. In just one month, tariffs for cold water and sewage increased by 18%, for garbage collection by 13.3%, for hot water by 12.5%, and for central heating by 12.1%. Medicines rose in price by 9.7% on average in one month. In addition, medical, preventive, and protective devices show a similar level of price growth. The price of granulated sugar increased by a relatively small in April, but still significant 3.3%.

Continued growth of devaluation expectations

In April, the devaluation expectations of Uzbek residents showed a slight increase, almost reaching record values for the entire time of the research. The share of those who expect the sum to weaken against the dollar over the next 12 months increased from 70.2% in March to 71.4% at the time of the survey. In the one-month horizon, the share of pessimists continued to grow for the third consecutive month: from 51.8% to 53.5%. However, the sum slightly strengthened against the dollar in the foreign exchange market in April. The dollar-sum pair decreased by 0.12% at the end of the month, however, this currency tandem reached new records in early April.

Kyrgyzstan

In Kyrgyzstan, the Consumer Confidence Index rose by 1.7 points in April, reaching 129.7 points. Four of the five sub-indexes that determine the composite level of the CCI index showed growth. The largest increase was recorded in the improvement of the economic situation over the past 12 months. On the other hand, a slight decrease in sentiment is observed in terms of changes in the personal financial situation of Kyrgyz residents. The remaining sub-indexes show a slight increase in optimism compared to March.

Economy estimates showed a significant recovery

The sub-index of changes in the economic situation in Kyrgyzstan increased by 4.9 points and reached 135.4 points, which was the third highest value in the 10 months of the research. The share of people who positively assess changes in the economy over the past 12 months increased from 54.7% to 58.6%. All four age groups show an increase in optimism. Thereat, this is most noticeable in middle-aged people. Among residents aged 30-44, the share of positive responses increased from 51.6% to 56.2%, and the same indicator increased from 52.5% to 58.6% among the 45-59 age group. Nevertheless, the leader continues to be the older generation over 60 years of age, among which the share of optimists is 66.8%, which is also higher than in March – 63%.

Regionally, only the Issyk-Kul region was marked with a minus sign. In this region, the share of respondents, who believe that the economic situation has improved over the past year, has decreased from 65.4% to 61%. On the other hand, Talas region showed the best progress, where the same indicator increased from 49.6% to 63.7%. However, this is not the highest absolute result in April. The clear leader among all regions of Kyrgyzstan is Batken region, where the share of positive responses was 72.7%, which, by the way, is more than 7 percentage points higher than it was in March. Residents of the capital, where the same indicator reached 44.1%, gave the worst response, which is slightly higher than the March value.

Favorable conditions for large purchases are the highest in Central Asia

The sub-index of favorable current conditions for large purchases increased by 1.6 points to 90.4 points, which is the highest value in all of Central Asia. 35.2% of Kyrgyzstanis indicate favorable conditions for this, while such people were 33.7% among all respondents in March. It is interesting to note that the results were mixed across age groups this time. Young people under 29 years old showed an improvement in results, but among the older generation over 60 years old, on the contrary, an increase in pessimism was recorded. 37.9% of young people gave a positive answer, although this figure was only 33.7% in March. Among people over 60 years of age, the same figure was 29.5% in April and 34.8% in March. As a result, the youth took over the leadership from the older generation, who, on the contrary, showed the worst results, in April.

Regionally, a sharp increase in the share of positive answers compared to March is recorded in two regions: Naryn (+11 p.p.) and Batken (+5 p.p.). As a result, the Batken region became the leader among all regions; it is there that the most people believe that now is a favorable time for large purchases (41.5%). On the other hand, in the Issyk-Kul region the same figure fell from 40.9 to 33.7% and from 29.2 to 25.7% in Bishkek. Thus, the capital only consolidated its previous status in April.

Slight decrease in inflationary feelings

Inflation feelings and expectations of Kyrgyzstanis generally remained at the same levels in April. If 29.2% of respondents felt a very strong increase in prices over the past month in March, then 27.6% of respondents felt a very strong increase in prices over the past month in April. Despite this decline, this indicator is only the second lowest in the entire research period. Estimates of price growth over the past 12 months decreased even less significantly. In April, 51.7% of Kyrgyzstanis recorded an acceleration in price growth, while this figure was 52.6% in March. Official data on annual inflation indicate its stagnation in April at the level of 5.2%, which also fully coincides with the opinion of respondents who participated in the survey.

The inflation expectations of Kyrgyzstanis also remained approximately at the previous low levels, showing a slight increase. The share of respondents expecting faster price growth in the next 12 months increased from 11.8% to 12.7%. As well as the share of those, who believe that prices will rise very much in the next month, increased from 6.3 to 6.7%.

Among certain products and services, we note flour, which remains the constant leader of the rating for at least the last eight months. 52.7% of respondents noted this product, as the increase in prices for it was the most noticeable. However, fewer and fewer people think about flour during the research. We continue to note that the list of the top 5 products with the highest price increases has not changed for the eighth consecutive month. In April, 43.7% of respondents mentioned vegetable oil, 35.3% sugar and salt, 34.5% meat and poultry, and 34.3% vegetables and fruits. On the other hand, according to official statistics, prices for oils and fats have fallen by 7.8% over the past year, by 4.1% for sugar, jam, honey and chocolate, and by 16% for vegetables. Thereat, fruit prices have increased by 26% over the year.

Sharp decline in devaluation expectations

The Kyrgyz som significantly strengthened in April. The dollar-som pair fell in value by 0.9% and reached the level that was last recorded in November last year. This is probably reflected in the sentiment of Kyrgyzstanis, whose devaluation expectations fell to almost record lows in April. If 32.6% of residents expected the som to weaken in a year in March, then the share of such people fell sharply to 27.4% in April, which is the lowest value for the entire time of the research. In terms of the dollar's growth over the one-month horizon, the decline in the share of pessimists was not so significant: from 16.7% to 15.8%, which is only 0.55 percentage points higher than the record figure.

Tajikistan

In general, the Consumer Confidence Index remained in Tajikistan at the same levels in April, increasing from 146 to 146.7 points. Some sub-indexes showed a multidirectional movement compared to March. Most of all, the forecasts of residents regarding the economic situation in the next 12 months have improved. On the other hand, estimates of the favorable current conditions for large purchases also fell markedly.

Record positive expectations for the economy

As noted above, sub-indexes the forecast for the economic situation in the next 12 months showed the greatest improvement among all sub-indexes. Note that this sub-index rose to 182.2 points, which is an absolute record for the entire time of the research. The share of optimistic respondents increased from 82.4% to 85.7%. By age, the greatest increase in optimism is recorded in the group of people aged 45-59 years: from 83.9 to 87.8%. As a result, this was the highest among all four age groups. Respondents of other ages generally showed a similar share of positive responses in the range of 84-86%.

In all regions, except the capital, there is an increase in the proportion of residents, who are waiting for the economic situation to improve. In Dushanbe, the share of positive responses fell from 84.1% to 81.4%, which was the worst result among all regions. In the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region and in districts of republican subordination, this figure slightly exceeded 90%. Districts of republican subordination can be called the leader with a slight advantage, as they received more unambiguously positive responses. These two regions also showed the greatest progress compared to March.

Conditions for large purchases have slightly worsened

However, the sub-index of favorable current conditions for large purchases and expenditures fell by 1.8 points in April and reached 81.4 points. This result is the lowest in the last seven months. 39.7% of respondents gave positive answers, although in March, there were slightly more such answers: 40.5%. Nevertheless, the main dramatic changes in the results occurred in the context of age groups. If the older respondents showed an increase in positive emotions, the dynamics was completely opposite for young people under the age of 29. In March, 48% of young people indicated that the current conditions were favorable for large purchases, while in April, this share fell to 42.7%. Among people over 60, the share of optimists increased from 39.6% to 46%, which was the best result among all age groups. In addition, the share of positive responses among people aged 45-59 increased by 5 percentage points. It should also be noted that despite the deterioration of the results, young people took the second place. 

In terms of regions, drastic changes are observed in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, where the share of optimists sharply decreased from 54.4% to 35.7%, which was the worst indicator among all five regions. Moreover, this indicator fell by a significant 9 percentage points in the districts of republican subordination. While the other three regions showed almost uniform results of the share of positive responses in a narrow range of 41-42%.

Lower inflation estimates and expectations

Inflation estimates and expectations of Tajikistanis showed a noticeable decline in April. Record low results were recorded for the entire research period in absolutely all four parameters. The share of respondents who noted a strong increase in prices over the past month decreased from 21.2 to 17.4%. Over the past 12 months, the share of those who experienced faster price growth fell from 25.4 to 23.8%. Inflation expectations of Tajikistan residents also fell across both periods to the lowest levels in all of Central Asia. Only 6.5% of residents expect a very strong rise in prices in the coming month, while there were 10.7% in March. Over the one-year horizon, the share of people expecting faster price growth fell slightly from 9.3% to 9.1%.

Official inflation data for April has not yet been released, but annual inflation in March remained unchanged at 3.6%, reflecting a slight decline in inflationary sentiment among residents in the last wave of the survey. Among some products, the price of flour continues to be the most worrying for Tajikistan residents. 37% of respondents mentioned it as the product for which the price increase was most noticeable. However, there were noticeably more such people (41.1%) in March. We also note a sharp increase in the share of those who noticed a strong increase in prices for vegetables and fruits (+4.3 percentage points), which was the second consecutive month of strong growth. While meat and poultry, on the contrary, recorded a decline from 31.2 to 27.7%, which is still more than in February. At the same time, in March, the official increase in meat prices accelerated, which affected the sentiment of residents last time. Thus, annual inflation accelerated from 3.6% to 6% for meat and meat products, and from 6.4% to 9% for beef. For fruits and vegetables, there is a slight slowdown in growth rates in March, while it is quite impressive 28.2% for fruits.

Slight drop in devaluation expectations

Devaluation expectations in Tajikistan generally showed a slight decrease in April compared to March. Let us note that the dollar exchange rate against the somoni has remained at almost the same levels over the past 14 months. The share of those who expect the national currency to weaken during the month decreased from 15.6 to 14.2%, which is the lowest value for the entire period of the research. In the one-year horizon, 23.1% of the country’s population expects weakening (22.9% in March).

Conclusions

In general, April 2024 turned out to be neutral for the Central Asian countries, but different individually. While in Kazakhstan, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is recovering after four consecutive months of decline, in Uzbekistan, the CCI index shows a sharp decline returning to February values. However, the situation in the above-mentioned countries is different, as Kazakhstan technically continues to be in the negative zone with a predominance of negative responses over positive ones, while Uzbekistan retains the second line after Tajikistan. At the same time, the change in the CCI index was not so significant in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Nevertheless, Kyrgyzstan has come close to Uzbekistan and may well overtake its western neighbor if this trend continues.

The recovery of the CCI index in Kazakhstan was a breath of fresh air after four consecutive months of decline. Although the index formally failed to exceed the neutral limit of 100 points, a noticeable improvement was observed in all sub-indexes. In addition, the CCI index turned out to be almost 3 points higher compared to April 2023. In April, fewer Kazakhstanis began to notice a deterioration in their personal financial situation, and many more respondents noted that the current conditions were favorable for large purchases. The opposite trend is recorded in Uzbekistan, where all five sub-indexes showed a decrease. In general, the CCI index in Uzbekistan has been showing swings for the last four months, either falling or recovering again.

In Kyrgyzstan, the CCI index showed a slight increase for the second month in a row due to a sharp improvement in residents' opinions about past changes in the economic situation. At the same time, Kyrgyzstan came close to Uzbekistan in the CCI index lagging only 0.5 points. Last month, the difference was significantly higher and amounted to 7.8 points in favor of Uzbekistan. But the leader of Tajikistan is doing pretty consistently well. The CCI index increased slightly by 0.6 points, and the sub-indexes showed mixed dynamics. Let us note an all-time record level of optimism regarding the improvement of the economic situation: the overwhelming majority (86%) give positive answers.

In general, inflation estimates and expectations of residents of Central Asian countries show a significant decline in April, with the exception of Uzbekistan. In Kazakhstan, two inflation parameters fell to record lows for the entire period of the research, and the remaining two were close to records. At the same time, the share of those who noticed a strong increase in prices for housing services and utilities, which are drivers of inflation in recent months, fell sharply. In Tajikistan, inflation expectations and estimates of respondents also showed a good decline. At the same time, there is still a slight increase in residents’ concerns about rising prices for meat, fruits and vegetables. In Kyrgyzstan, inflation parameters turned out to be stable and did not show significant changes. Nevertheless, in this country, the opinion of residents on inflation remains one of the most positive in the region, along with Tajikistan. However, in Uzbekistan, the zero VAT rate on medicines and utilities was abolished. As a result, officially the prices for these items increased sharply, which resulted in a sharp increase in inflation estimates and expectations of residents, who also noticed a strong increase in prices specifically for medicines and housing services and utilities during the survey.

Devaluation expectations in the Central Asia countries also showed dynamics similar to inflation. In Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, there is a sharp decline in devaluation expectations. At the same time, the indicators for the most part turned out to be close to record low values for the entire period of the research. Most likely, it is happening amid strengthening national currencies in these countries. In Kazakhstan, a gradual strengthening has been recorded since October last year, while in Kyrgyzstan, the exchange rate, which had been fairly stable, depreciated noticeably in April. In Tajikistan, devaluation expectations remained at the same levels. But in Uzbekistan they show growth for the fourth to sixth month in a row, depending on horizon under consideration.

The tenth wave of the consumer confidence research among the population of four Central Asian countries again shows multidirectional dynamics. However, this wave provided answers to some previous questions. Thus, Kazakhstan finally managed to reverse the downward trend in the CCI index, and the March decline in Tajikistan did not turn out to be the beginning of some new negative trend. At the same time, the question remains open of how the dynamics of consumer confidence in Uzbekistan, which shows significant swings from month to month, will continue.